|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
GROWTH LULL?
by Johnny Whitfield, Wake Weekly Associate Editor
Judging by all the new businesses opening up along South Main Street and other major business corridors, it's hard to believe Wake Forest Planning Director Chip Russell's admonition that the town is entering a lull in retail development.
But the planning veteran is sticking to his predictions, first made at the Chamber of Commerce meeting last month. "This is really typical," Russell said. "Development happens in leaps and bounds. It takes time for the market to absorb that." Such development typically precedes the market slightly, Russell said. That means new restaurants and retailers start operations just before the population exists in a certain market to support that business. By the time the flurry of new businesses are up and running, the customer base has grown to meet it. But Russell says what usually follows is a lull while the number of rooftops, or potential new customers, grows to the point that additional goods and services are needed to serve the market. "As you see your rooftops grow, you will see those new businesses get busier and busier," Russell said. "And, seemingly overnight, you will have that next big splurge of growth." And unlike most people, Russell is looking several months, even a year, down the road. Most of what is now being built, and those businesses that have just opened, have been off Russell's radar screen for some time. And the pace of new retail development his staff is dealing with has slowed significantly. "With Triangle Town Center and what we have now, the retail market is pretty much locked up as far as getting any new big box stores," Russell said. "What you might see are smaller centers that have a grocery store and one or two other shops." Among the projects already approved, but not yet built, is what Russell calls a power center. Such developments typically attract regional and small national chains like Pier 1 and Old Navy stores. The town has already approved plans for just such a development on Capital Boulevard just north of Caveness Farms Apartments. That project has been through one developer who dropped it. Another has picked it up, though, and has one year to begin construction. If that project gets off the ground, Russell says the area's retail market will be fully tapped out. The smaller centers that Russell said could continue to develop typically use about 70,000 square feet of retail space. Planner Ann Ayers says that size development needs about 1,000 new families to make the investment pay off. Much of that growth, Russell says, will come on the eastern side of Wake Forest and not along the South Main Street and Capital Boulevard locations that are such hot properties right now. Two other factors could also impact retail development, but Russell downplays their effects. Last month's election swept two slow-growth candidates into office. Russell says he doesn't expect Frank Drake and Margaret Jones Stinnett to stamp out potential new retail development. "I think their focus is going to be more toward the quality of the development we have. I think they want to make sure that what does develop is something that fits well with what's already here," Russell said. Of more concern, at some point, could be the town's water supply. The merger of the town's water system with Raleigh means the Capital City controls how much water the town gets. Raleigh has already allocated enough water for the town to grow at its current pace through 2010. If residential development occurs even more quickly than it does now, Wake Forest would find itself having to ask for a larger supply of water. That's something Russell says Raleigh will consider very carefully before granting its approval. While politics and water may eventually play a role in future retail development, it looks like an even more basic issue -- the market -- will have a more immediate impact in the short term.
Last Updated On: December 1, 2005
Copyright 2005 The Wake Weekly